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Saturday's Free Football Betting Tips: Back Bayern to bounce back in this 10/1 accumulator!

My expected goals model data is accessible via this link for free, and covers over 10 leagues. 

My model assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance.

All expected goals data referenced in this article is from my own model data.

Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest

Aston Villa average 3.13 expected goals per home game and face a Forest side that average 1.80 expected goals against. The Villa defence also has injuries, with Konsa, Mings, and Carlos still out. Forest have seen over 2.5 land in six of eight under Nuno and in five of six away at sides in the top nine. Villa have scored three or more in seven of twelve home games.

Ipswich v Birmingham

Ipswich have scored three or more in nine of sixteen home games and have been in fine goalscoring form recently, with 15 goals in their last six games. Kieffer Moore was spotted in training after coming off with a knock against Rotherham, so he will hope to add to his goal tally of  four goals in five games since joining in January. The Tractor Boys have seen over 2.5 land in 82% of home games. 

Sunderland v Swansea

Sunderland should have a real spring in their step following the sacking of Michael Beale. Our expected goal numbers have the gap between these two sides at a little over 0.90 goals per game, meaning the 10/11 on offer for the Black Cats to get the win is great value. They've won ten of sixteen at home. The Swans have lost five of their last six and six of eight away at top-half teams. 

Salernitana v Monza

Salernitana have seen over 1.5 land in 100% of home games, mainly because they're conceding 2.08 goals per game. They're averaging 2.48 expected goals per home game, and every game is a must-win for them now being seven points adrift of safety. Monza have seen over 1.5 land in four of five away against sides in the bottom six of Serie A. They average 1.65 expected goals against, so this is a good spot for Sal to push for a win.

Bayern Munich v RB Leipzig

Bayern have lost three games in a row, but there is no need to panic just yet. They were the better side by over 0.50 expected goals in both games, even with a red card in each. RB Leipzig have struggled when stepping up in class in the Bundesliga. They lost 5-2 at Stuttgart and 3-2 at Leverkusen. They won 3-2 at Dortmund, but Dortmund had a twelfth-minute red card and only won the xG battle by 0.47.

10/1 Accumulator

Over 2.5 Goals - Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest

Over 2.5 Goals - Ipswich v Birmingham

Sunderland to beat Swansea

Over 1.5 Goals - Salernitana v Monza

Bayern Munich to beat RB Leipzig

£10 returns £106.73 with bet365

Click here to add today's accumulator straight to your bet365 bet slip

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