Sunday's Free Football Betting Tips: Back Juve to avoid defeat in Naples in this 11/1 accumulator!

My expected goals model data is accessible via this link for free, and covers over 10 leagues. 

My model assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance.

All expected goals data referenced in this article is from my own model data.

Frosinone v Lecce

Frosinone have the highest total goals per game in Serie A at 3.43. They face a Lecce side with the fourth-worst defence in Serie A, allowing 1.65 goals per game. Frosinone have seen over 2.5 land in all six home games against sides in the bottom half and over 3.5 land in three. Lecce have seen both teams find the back of the net in all five against sides in the bottom half, so we should be in for more goals and over 2.5 looks great value at 20/21.

PSV v Feyenoord

PSV have seen over 2.5 land in three of four away at the big four sides in Holland, which includes the first meeting at Feyenoord, which ended in a 2-1 away win for PSV with 3.12 xG. They beat Ajax 5-2 and are yet to play the other three. Feyenoord's numbers away from home have been down due to European competition, which included their last away game against AZ (0-1). Now they are out, we should see them return to normal. They had averaged 2.53 xG created away from home before last week. They've also seen over 2.5 land at both Twente and Ajax. 

Atalanta v Bologna

Atalanta average 3.05 expected goals per home game and have seen over 2.5 land in 62%. They have the second-best expected goals created in Serie A and have scored two or more in nine of 13 at home. Bologna have drastic home/away splits in their results with 11 wins from 14 at home and just two in 12 away. They've seen over 2.5 land in four of five away against top half teams and conceded two in three. 21/20 for over 2.5 presents a nice bit of value. 

Napoli v Juventus

Napoli have completely lost their way this season without Luciano Spalletti. They've won just two games against sides outside the bottom seven, drawn six, and lost eight. They were impressive in their 6-1 victory over Sassuolo midweek, but this is a different test, and I can't be having them as favourites over a Juve side that have lost just three games all year, one of which was away at Inter.

10/1 Accumulator

Over 2.5 Goals - Frosinone v Lecce 

Over 2.5 Goals - PSV v Feyenoord

Over 2.5 Goals - Atalanta v Bologna

Juventus Double Chance (Win or Draw) at Napoli

£10 returns £113.29 with bet365

Click here to add it straight to your bet365 bet slip

Accumulator Free Bets

1. BetMGM - Bet £10, Get £40!

Get £40 in free bets when sign up here to BetMGM and bet just £10! Another new partner for Soccerbase users in 2024!

2. CopyBet - Bet £10, Get £50!

Get £50 in free bets when you sign up here to CopyBet and bet £10 at CopyBet! One of the best promotions around from a new UK bookmaker.

3. bet365 - Bet £10, Get £30!

Get £30 in free bets when sign up here to bet365 and bet just £10!

4. BetVictor - Bet £10, Get £40 In Football Free Bets!

Get £40 in free bets when sign up here to BetVictor and bet just £10! A new partner for Soccerbase users in 2024!

5. Sky Bet - Get £40 In Football Accumulator Free Bets!

Get £40 in football accumulator free bets when bet £10 at Sky Bet! A new Soccerbase partner for 2024!

For daily football tips, predictions, and betting strategy head over to the Soccerbase free football betting tips section.


Agonising over Aberdeen?
Yearning for Yeovil? Our database is crammed with every football club you could possibly wish for


A plethora of players ranging from Adebayor to Zamora. All you need to know to find out who is the best bet to score next


Whether it's the Johnstone's Paint Trophy or the Champions League, Soccerbase will ensure you don't experience a big cup upset


Card-happy control freak?
Astute arbiter? Make the right decision on any referee with the help of our specialist pages


From Allardyce to Zola, our massive manager database, with histories and win ratios, is sure to get your vote of confidence