Sunday's Free Football Betting Tips: Back The Hatters to cause United problems in this 14/1 accumulator!

My expected goals model data is accessible via this link for free, and covers over 10 leagues. 

My model assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance.

All expected goals data referenced in this article is from my own model data.

Rayo Vallecano v Real Madrid

Real Madrid have won six of their seven away games against sides outside of the top six in La Liga. They come in off a 1-0 win at Leipzig in the Champions League, now giving them eight wins in their last ten in all competitions. They have created over 2.00 expected goals at each of Getafe, Cadiz, and Almeria and will have too much going forward for Vallecano. The first meeting's 0-0 scoreline is misleading; the Galacticos won the xG battle 2.03-0.64.

Sheffield United v Brighton

Sheffield United have created over 1.00 expected goal in their last four home games and should have some success going forward against a Brighton side that's allowed 1.57 xG per game on the road. De Zerbi's men have only won three away games this season, but they have been great entertainers, with their away games averaging 3.50 goals and 2.83 expected goals. One reason for their overperformance is neither of their goalkeepers have been a good shot-stopper. The Blades have seen 4.17 goals over their last six, 3.19 expected.

Luton v Manchester United

Luton have scored in 11 of 12 home games, which includes games against Brighton, Chelsea, Newcastle, Man City, Liverpool, and Arsenal. In their last four games, they've averaged 1.86 expected goals for and scored eight goals. Manchester United haven't kept a single opponent under 1.00 expected goals away from home and have conceded 15 from 21.60. They lost Martinez to injury again, and Shaw is a doubt, according to ten Hag. The Hatters have enough going forward to trouble another big side at Kenilworth Road, and this should be another goal fest.

Frosinone v Roma

This is a spot I've been backing for the last few weeks since De Rossi came in at Roma. The market still needs to catch up to Roma's more attacking style of play. Their season-long number for average goals per game sits at 3.00, but the last six have risen to 3.67. Frosinone average 3.41 goals per game at home, so this should be an entertaining game with plenty of goals. Frosinone's games against top-six opposition have averaged 3.38 goals per game.

Monza v AC Milan

Monza's games against top-six opposition have seen 3.42 expected goals per game, the highest rate in Serie A. They'll face a Milan side in blistering goal-scoring form with 15 goals in their last six games and two or more in their last eight straight away games. Monza have already conceded five to Inter and two to Juve at home. They've conceded two or more in all five games against the top four home and away.

14/1 Accumulator

Real Madrid to beat Rayo Vallecano

Over 2.5 Goals - Sheffield United v Brighton

Both Teams To Score & Over 2.5 Goals - Luton v Manchester United

Over 2.5 Goals - Monza v AC Milan

Over 2.5 Goals - Frosinone v Roma

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