Sunday's Free Football Betting Tips: Back the Reds to secure first trophy of the season in this 11/1 accumulator!

My expected goals model data is accessible via this link for free, and covers over 10 leagues. 

My model assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance.

All expected goals data referenced in this article is from my own model data.

Chelsea v Liverpool

Liverpool closed as -1.5 favourites against Chelsea at the end of January and now you can back them at a neutral venue at 1.73 Draw No Bet? That is a price I cannot pass up. Yes, they have injuries with Trent, Jota, Alisson and Jones all out but we should see Salah, Robertson, and Nunez who all trained ahead of the final. Chelsea couldn't cope with Liverpool's press and kept turning the ball over high resulting in 28 shots in a 4-1 victory for the reds - 2.58 v 1.08 xG.

AZ v Ajax

Ajax away games have averaged 4.56 goals per game. They've seen over 3.5 land in 82% and over 4.5 land in 55%. Their underlying metrics also back up their very high goal outputs with an average of 3.67 xG per game. They've conceded two or more in nine of their eleven away games. AZ have seen over 3.5 land in 45% of home games and scored two or more in seven of eleven.

Lecce v Inter Milan

Lecce have averaged 2.78 expected goals per game against the top six sides in Serie A this season. They are more than capable of finding the back of the net here having scored in five of six at home against the top eight sides. Inter are coming in off the back of a dominant midweek Champions League performance. The first meeting ended 2-0 but there were 3.97 expected goals. 

AC Milan v Atalanta

Milan have been a team we've seemingly backed every week for goals over the past couple of months. They've scored 18 goals in their last eight and have gone over 2.5 in six. Atalanta have been in fine goalscoring form with 18 goals in their last six games. According to our model, the first meeting ended 3-2 with 3.64 expected goals.

11/1 Accumulator

Liverpool Draw No Bet v Chelsea

Over 3.0 Asian Goal Line - AZ v Ajax

Over 2.5 Goals - Lecce v Inter Milan

Over 2.5 Goals - AC Milan v Atalanta

£10 returns £121.50 with bet365

Click here to add today's accumulator straight to your bet365 bet slip

Accumulator Free Bets

1. Bet £10, Get £50!

Get £50 in free bets when you sign up here to CopyBet and bet £10 at CopyBet! One of the best promotions around from a new UK bookmaker.

2. Bet £10, Get a £40 In Bonuses!

New Betfred customers can get £40 in bonuses when they sign up here for a new account! 

3. Bet £10, Get £30!

Get £30 in free bets when sign up here to bet365 and bet just £10!

4. Bet £10, Get £40 In Football Free Bets!

Get £40 in free bets when sign up here to BetVictor and bet just £10! Another new partner for Soccerbase users in February 2024!

5. Get £40 In Football Accumulator Free Bets!

Get £40 in football accumulator free bets when bet £10 at Sky Bet! A new Soccerbase partner for February 2024.

For daily football tips, predictions, and betting strategy head over to the Soccerbase free football betting tips section.


Agonising over Aberdeen?
Yearning for Yeovil? Our database is crammed with every football club you could possibly wish for


A plethora of players ranging from Adebayor to Zamora. All you need to know to find out who is the best bet to score next


Whether it's the Johnstone's Paint Trophy or the Champions League, Soccerbase will ensure you don't experience a big cup upset


Card-happy control freak?
Astute arbiter? Make the right decision on any referee with the help of our specialist pages


From Allardyce to Zola, our massive manager database, with histories and win ratios, is sure to get your vote of confidence