Sunday's Free Football Betting Tips: Back the Reds to secure first trophy of the season in this 11/1 accumulator!
My expected goals model data is accessible via this link for free, and covers over 10 leagues.
My model assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance.
All expected goals data referenced in this article is from my own model data.
Chelsea v Liverpool
Liverpool closed as -1.5 favourites against Chelsea at the end of January and now you can back them at a neutral venue at 1.73 Draw No Bet? That is a price I cannot pass up. Yes, they have injuries with Trent, Jota, Alisson and Jones all out but we should see Salah, Robertson, and Nunez who all trained ahead of the final. Chelsea couldn't cope with Liverpool's press and kept turning the ball over high resulting in 28 shots in a 4-1 victory for the reds - 2.58 v 1.08 xG.
AZ v Ajax
Ajax away games have averaged 4.56 goals per game. They've seen over 3.5 land in 82% and over 4.5 land in 55%. Their underlying metrics also back up their very high goal outputs with an average of 3.67 xG per game. They've conceded two or more in nine of their eleven away games. AZ have seen over 3.5 land in 45% of home games and scored two or more in seven of eleven.
Lecce v Inter Milan
Lecce have averaged 2.78 expected goals per game against the top six sides in Serie A this season. They are more than capable of finding the back of the net here having scored in five of six at home against the top eight sides. Inter are coming in off the back of a dominant midweek Champions League performance. The first meeting ended 2-0 but there were 3.97 expected goals.
AC Milan v Atalanta
Milan have been a team we've seemingly backed every week for goals over the past couple of months. They've scored 18 goals in their last eight and have gone over 2.5 in six. Atalanta have been in fine goalscoring form with 18 goals in their last six games. According to our model, the first meeting ended 3-2 with 3.64 expected goals.
11/1 Accumulator
Liverpool Draw No Bet v Chelsea
Over 3.0 Asian Goal Line - AZ v Ajax
Over 2.5 Goals - Lecce v Inter Milan
Over 2.5 Goals - AC Milan v Atalanta
£10 returns £121.50 with bet365
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