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Thursday's Free Football Betting Tips: Back more goals for the I Giallorossi in this 13/2 treble!

My expected goals model data is accessible via this link for free, and covers over 10 leagues. 

My model assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance.

All expected goals data referenced in this article is from my own model data.

Bodo/Glimt v PSV

The first leg finished 2-2 in Holland and had 3.57 expected goals. Ajax have seen over 3.5 land in 82% of their games away from home in the league and two out of four in Europe. Molde have seen over 3.5 in 53% of home games in the league and three out of six in Europe, but they have scored three or more in five. This should be another end-to-end entertaining game with a place in the next round up for grabs.

Legia Warsaw v Molde

This should be a very hostile environment in Poland. Legia went three from three at home in the group stages, which included an impressive 3-2 win over Aston Villa and a 2-0 win over AZ. Molde lost two out of three away from home in their group stage games, and they even lost to HJK Helsinki and KI Klaksvik from the Faroe Islands in Champions League qualifying. 

Roma v Feyenoord

Roma have seen over 2.5 goals in all five Serie A matches under Daniele De Rossi, scoring 13 goals. The first leg ended 1-1 in a game with 2.57 expected goals and this sets up to be an entertaining second leg given Feyenoord's away statistics. They've seen over 2.5 in 80% of away games in the Eredivisie and two from three in Europe. They've actually seen over 3.5 in 50% of away games. 

13/2 Treble

Over 3.5 Goals - Bodo/Glimt v Ajax

Legia Warsaw to beat Molde

Over 2.5 Goals - Roma v Feyenoord

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