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Tuesday's Free Football Betting Tips: Back Inter to get first leg win over Atleti in this 5/1 treble!

My expected goals model data is accessible via this link for free, and covers over 10 leagues. 

My model assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance.

All expected goals data referenced in this article is from my own model data.

Inter Milan v Atletico Madrid

Inter have been head and shoulders above everyone else in Serie A this season. According to my expected goals model data they have been over 0.50 xG per 90, better than second-place Juventus, which is a huge difference. They've won ten of twelve at home, beaten four of the top seven and won two of three in the Champions League group stages. Atletico have struggled on their travels in La Liga with six losses from twelve. If you focus on top-half opposition, they've lost five and drawn two. They also drew away at Lazio and Celtic in the group stages and beat Feyenoord 3-1. A big problem for them has been keeping the ball out of their own net. This side differs from the defensive Atletico side we're used to seeing. They've conceded over 1.50 expected goals per game away in La Liga. Having a sub-par defence isn't what you want when facing an Inter side that averages over 2.00 goals per game at home this season. Atletico will also be without Morata.

Manchester City v Brentford

Brentford have scored in their last three matches against Man City and have notched in all five games since Ivan Toney returned from injury.  The Bees have also scored away in three of five against top six sides in the Premier League. Man City have kept just one clean sheet at home to sides outside of the bottom six in seven games.

Ipswich v Rotherham

Ipswich are back scoring goals now they have Kieffer Moore up top. He's scored three in four and Ipswich have racked up ten in total. This is a spot the Tractor Boys have been dominate scoring three or more in five of seven at home to sides in the bottom half and winning six. Rotherham lost 3-0 away at both Leeds and Leicester. They also lost and saw over 2.5 in three of four away against top half opposition. 

5/1 Treble

Inter to beat Atletico Madrid 

Both Teams To Score & Over 2.5 Goals - Man City v Brentford

Ipswich Win & Over 2.5 Goals v Rotherham

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