Free Football Betting Tips: Best Bets for Saturday

Our best bets column is where you can find our football expert's best value bets of the day. A value bet is where the betting odds on offer are higher than they should be, which is how you win over the long term in any form of betting.

A big part of finding value is using my expected goals model data, which assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance. This data, tactical analysis, and individual player matchups are where we find value and gain an edge over the bookmakers.

Saturday's Best Bets

Newcastle still have one of the worst defences in the Premier League. Over the last six games, they have allowed 1.93 expected goals per match. They conceded four to Luton and two to Bournemouth and Forest. Wolves will be without Hwang, but they put four past Chelsea and three past Everton and Manchester United without him earlier this year. Their away games have averaged 2.97 expected goals. The first meeting ended 2-2 with 3.29 xG.

1 Point on Newcastle v Wolves - Both Teams To Score & Over 2.5 Best price available at 1.83 with bet365

Roma featured in Monday's 5/1 winning treble, and I like their game to have three or more goals again. Roma have won five of six in Serie A since De Rossi took over, scoring 15 goals in the process. They have seen over 2.5 land in all six and will face a Monza side that have conceded two or more at home to three of the top six in four games.

1 Point on Monza v Roma - Over 2.5 Best price available at 2.03 with bet365

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