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Saturday's Free Football Betting Tips: Back more goals at Spurs in this 18/1 accumulator!

We landed our Monday 5/1 treble to get the week off to a flying start! Let's build on that good form with a 16/1 Saturday accumulator!

My expected goals model data is accessible via this link for free, and covers over 10 leagues. 

My model assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance.

All expected goals data referenced in this article is from my own model data.

Fulham v Brighton

Fulham average 2.92 goals and 2.94 expected goals at home, according to our model numbers. João Palhinha is suspended. He is their best ball-winning midfielder and will be a big miss against an attacking side like Brighton. The Seagulls have a few injuries of their own with Mitoma, Pedro, March, and Milner out, but they still have enough attacking quality to create. Their away games this season have averaged 3.61 goals and have seen over 2.5 land in 69%

Tottenham v Crystal Palace

Tottenham's home games have averaged 3.62 expected goals, and they've seen over 2.5 land in 85%. Palace will be more attacking under Oliver Glasner, and they will be able to have success in transition against a Spurs side that likes to get their fullbacks high. Spurs have the fifth-worst expected goals against record at home in the Premier League, so we should expect more goals.

Newcastle v Wolves

Newcastle still have one of the worst defences in the Premier League. Over the last six games, they have allowed 1.93 expected goals per match. They conceded four to Luton and two to Bournemouth and Forest. Wolves will be without Hwang, but they put four past Chelsea and three past Everton and Manchester United without him earlier this year. Their away games have averaged 2.97 expected goals. The first meeting ended 2-2 with 3.29 xG.

Brentford v Chelsea

Brentford have scored in six of seven since Toney returned from suspension, 12 goals in total. They scored two at Spurs and one at home to Liverpool and Man City. They've seen over 2.5 land in 85% of home games, mainly due to their defence conceding over two goals a game at 2.08. Chelsea's away games have seen 3.46 goals and 3.08 xG. There were 3.08 expected goals in the first meeting that Brentford won 2-0.

Monza v Roma

Roma featured in Monday's 5/1 winning treble, and I like their game to have three or more goals again. Roma have won five of six in Serie A since De Rossi took over, scoring 15 goals in the process. They have seen over 2.5 land in all six and will face a Monza side that have conceded two or more at home to three of the top six in four games.

Torino v Fiorentina

Torino were Roma's opposition on Monday night and this is a similar spot. They've struggled when stepping up in class and have now lost eight of eleven against sides in the top half of Serie A. They've conceded two or more in seven and have seen over 1.5 land in all five at home. Fio have kept just two clean sheets away from home in 13 and have seen over 1.5 land in 69% of away games. 

18/1 Accumulator

Over 2.5 Goals - Fulham v Brighton

Over 2.5 Goals - Tottenham v Crystal Palace

Over 2.5 Goals - Newcastle v Wolves

Over 2.5 Goals - Chelsea v Brentford

Over 2.5 Goals - Monza v Roma

Over 1.5 Goals - Torino v Fiorentina

£10 returns £180.99 with bet365

Click here to add it straight to your bet365 bet slip

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