Tuesday's Free Football Betting Tips: Back Bournemouth to take care of weakened Foxes in this 6/1 accumulator!
We landed our Monday 5/1 treble to get the week off to a flying start! Let's build on that good form with a 6/1 Tuesday accumulator.
My expected goals model data is accessible via this link for free, and covers over 10 leagues.
My model assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance.
All expected goals data referenced in this article is from my own model data.
Bournemouth v Leicester
Enzo Maresca said in his press conference on Monday that the Foxes would rotate. He said, "For sure, we are going to make changes. We are going to make nine, 10, 11 changes. There are players who deserve their chances." Bournemouth have fielded strong sides in the previous rounds of the FA Cup, so we can assume they are taking this competition seriously as we're now deeper into it. They have won three of five home games against sides in the bottom half of the Premier League and knocked out two Championship sides in both previous rounds.
Notts County v Sutton Utd
Our expected goals ratings make Notts County over 1.00 goals per game better than Sutton Utd in this spot. Their home form is very strong, averaging 0.47 xG better than their opponents. This inverse is true for Sutton, who have lost 11 of 16 away from home, and they've been outplayed by an average xG margin of 0.50. Notts County have won 10 of 16 home games and all eight against sides in the bottom half. They've dominated teams in the bottom half, scoring three or more in seven of eight and 25 goals in total. They will have too much going forward for a Sutton side that ranks 22nd in goals scored and 21st in xG created.
Wigan v Bolton
Another side we make value on our xG ratings is Bolton. We have them rated as the fifth-best side in League One compared to 23rd-ranked Wigan, who have overperformed all season. Bolton have won eight of their ten away games against sides in the bottom half. Wigan have lost four of six at home against sides in the top six. The first meeting ended in a 4-0 win for Wigan, which has to be the biggest mismatch of the season according to our expected goal numbers that made it 2.21-1.03 in Bolton's favour. I expect the Wanderers to get revenge on Tuesday night.
Swindon v Tranmere
This is a spot Swindon have performed well in this season. They've won seven of their nine home games against sides outside of the top seven. They face a Tranmere side with drastic home/away splits. The Rovers have lost 12 of 17 on their travels, averaging a -0.48 per game expected goal difference. In contrast, Swindon have been 0.32 goals per game better than their opponents at the County Ground.
6/1 Accumulator
Bournemouth to beat Leicester
Notts County to beat Sutton Utd
Bolton Draw No Bet at Wigan
Swindon Draw No Bet v Tranmere
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