Wednesday's Free Football Betting Tips: Back Inter to maintain home dominance in this 4/1 treble!

We landed our Monday 5/1 treble to get the week off to a flying start! Let's build on that good form with another 4/1 treble on Wednesday!

My expected goals model data is accessible via this link for free, and covers over 10 leagues. 

My model assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance.

All expected goals data referenced in this article is from my own model data.

Inter Milan v Atalanta

Inter have been dominant all season in Serie A. They have been 0.50 net expected goals per 90, better than any other side in the league. They've won 21 out of 25, which includes 10 of 12 at the San Siro. Atalanta have lost four and drawn six away at sides in the top half of Serie A. In their most recent 1-1 draw in this same stadium against AC Milan on Sunday night, they lost the xG battle 2.02-0.84. This shows they aren't putting in good performances, and Inter should do the double over them after beating them 2-1 away from home in November.

Wolves v Brighton

Wolves have seen over 2.5 land in 62% of their home games in the Premier League. If you isolate sides outside the bottom six, they've seen over 2.5 in seven of eight and have yet to keep a single clean sheet. This fixture finished 1-4 to Brighton at the start of the Premier League season back in August. Brighton's away games have also seen plenty of goals, with 69% of games going over 2.5. Brighton average 3.12 expected goals against mid-table Premier League sides, and Wolves average 3.02.

Nottingham Forest v Manchester United

Forest have seen over 2.5 in seven of nine Premier League games under Nuno. They've scored in eight and found the net on two occasions in seven, which includes a 2-1 win over United back in December. United have seen over 2.5 land in four of six away games against sides in the bottom half of the Premier League and in eight straight games against Premier League opposition. Forest's games have averaged 3.02 expected goals over the last eight and Man United's have averaged 3.30.

4/1 Treble

Inter Milan to beat Atalanta

Over 2.5 Goals - Wolves v Brighton

Over 2.5 Goals - Nottingham Forest v Manchester United

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