Premier League Early Bird Tip: Back goals to fly in for the Seagulls at Old Trafford

BY SOCCERBASE STAFF10:22 AM 29 SEP 2023

Welcome to the Early Bird tip for Premier League gameweek five.

This column aims to identify value early in the week when bookmakers first release their odds. We can then place bets before the prices move, so come kickoff on the weekend, we have much better odds on our selection than on game day.

Man United vs Brighton

We backed over 3 goal line in Brighton's clash last week against Newcastle. We were rewarded with a winner after it shortened to 1.76 on Pinnacle. Manchester United's trip to the Emirates also saw a big move for over 3 goals, shrinking from 1.85 to 1.71 in the two hours before kickoff.

Gameweek Five's bet follows a similar trend. Brighton's games this season have been 4-1, 4-1, 1-3, and 3-1. They are at the top of the expected goals created table. They will now go up against another defence suffering critical injuries, with Varane and Shaw out.

Manchester United are much stronger at Old Trafford. They scored two or more in three of their five games at home against the top six last year but only kept one clean sheet. Their over 2.5 goal percentage at home was 58% vs. 42% away.

With their vulnerable defence, United will be forced to attack, opening the game up, and we should see another Brighton game with four or more goals.

Selection: Over 3 Goal Line at 1.87 on bet365