Premier League Predictions: Betting tips for every game week 5 matchup

BY SOCCERBASE STAFF09:32 AM 31 SEP 2023

Sunday

Bournemouth vs. Chelsea

Chelsea's underlying expected goal metrics are very good, they just haven't been putting the ball in the back of the net. How long have we seen this going on for? Luckily for Chelsea, Bournemouth are poor defensively and they should be able to get right with a win away at that Vitality. Bournemouth have conceded two or more in three of their four games this season.

Verdict: Chelsea Win at 4/5 with bet365

Confidence Rating: 3/5

Everton vs. Arsenal

We have to delve a bit deeper to find some value in this matchup and I'm opting for a team shot market. Arsenal have only cleared this line once against the bottom six away last season. Their shot figures read 9, 23, 10, 15, 11, and 14. They only manager 15 away at Everton in Dyche's first game in charge last season. Everton also only allowed 9 shots to Man City and 15 shots to Newcastle at home under Dyche.

Verdict: Arsenal Under 16.5 Team Shots at 5/6 with bet365

Confidence Rating: 3/5

Monday

Nottingham Forest vs Burnley

So far this season, we're seeing over 2.5 goals land in 17% more matches than last season. Small sample size but the league has seen a big uptick in goals. Burnley have played three very good sides so it's difficult to take much away from those games other than they still want to be aggressive, press teams and play out from the back. They've seen over 2.5 in all three of their matches. Nottingham Forest aren't going to press Burnley but they have seen over 2.5 in three of their four matches including one against Sheffield United and you could argue that they were very lucky not to concede at least one away at Chelsea. Forest saw over 2.5 land in three of their five home games last season against the bottom six. Burnley have scored in two of three

Verdict: Over 2.5 Goals at 20/21 with bet365

Confidence Rating: 3/5

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Saturday

Wolves vs Liverpool

Liverpool kept a clean sheet away from home in just 25% of their matches. They'll be without van Dijk, Trent and Konate is a doubt so you will end up with a back four that includes Gomez, and Matip. Wolves created over 1 expected goal away at United and scored in their only home game against Brighton. Liverpool have an array of attacking talent but are leaky and injured at the back

Verdict: Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals with bet365

Confidence Rating: 3/5

Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace

These two sides are pretty similar in expected goal diference since Roy Hodgson took over and Villa have a couple of defensive injuries with Mings and Diego Carlos out. Give me the Eagles to avoid defeat

Verdict: Crystal Palace Double Chance at 21/20 with bet365

Confidence Rating: 2/5

Fulham vs Luton

If you read our Premier League gameweek four review you'd remember how Luton's pressing numbers increased against West Ham. I expect them to increase further against Fulham and we are treated to a very open game. Fulham saw over 2.5 in 74% of their home games last season. This game features in Saturday's 12/1 accumulator.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 10/11 with bet365

Confidence Rating: 4/5

Man United vs. Brighton

Brighton are the averaging the highest number of expeted goals created each game according to the Soccerbase model. They'll now face a Manchester United with key defensive injuries in Varane, Shaw, Malacia, and Amrabat. Their press will put the likes of Lindelof, Wan Bissaka and McTominay under pressure and force high turnovers. I expect the Seagulls to get at least a point at Old Trafford. We also tipped a selection from this game in the Early Bird Tip last week. This game also features in Saturday's 12/1 accumulator.

Verdict: Brighton +0.5 Asian Handicap at 4/6 with bet365

Confidence Rating: 4/5

Tottenham vs. Sheffield United

Sheffield United will sit in their low block and Spurs are going to have to break them down. I thought they did a good job of defending against Manchester City. They haven't lost by more than one goal in their four games this season and have a stronger squad now that Cameron Archer, Gustavo Hamer and Luke Thomas are all available for selection.

Verdict: Sheffield United +2 Asian Handicap at 4/6 with bet365

Confidence Rating: 3/5

West Ham vs. Man City

The Hammers have been very fortunate this season if you look at the expected goals table and are due for some regression. I noted in the game week 4 Premier League review that West Ham have averaged 52.25 losses of possession in their own third this season, up from 20.61, which indicates they are having more trouble playing through a press. This will be a major problem against Man City and Erling Haaland.

Verdict: Man City -1 Asian Handicap at 20/21 with bet365

Confidence Rating: 3/5

Newcastle vs. Brentford

I think Brentford will treat Newcastle with more respect than they did last year. The Bees tend to set up in a 3-5-2 against "bigger" opponents and play a 4-3-3 against teams they expect to be able to attack more. Brentford didn't lost once to top six opposition away from home last year by more than one goal and that was to Newcastle. The Toon will be without Tonali and Willock for this game. Anderson, Botman and Murphy are all carrying knocks. Almiron was also in action for Paraguay in the the early hours of Wednesday morning, so he is unlikely to start. They also have a big Champions League game against Milan on Tuesday, so may not risk further injuries.

Verdict: Brentford +1 Asian Handicap at 6/5 with bet365

Confidence Rating: 3/5