Premier League Review: Gameweek Four Expected Goals, Market Moves Tactics and Player Betting Notes

Welcome to the Premier League review. This column aims to go beyond the final score and see if we can identify information that will help with future betting opportunities.

We'll analyse expected goals, tactics, market moves and player performances to try and gain an edge in the Premier League betting markets.

Luton 1-2 West Ham

Expected Goals: 1.45-1.03

Luton look like they were unlucky on shot xG models, but if you look at possession-based expected goals models, West Ham come as the better side by about 0.40, which I thought is a better representation of the game. Luton caused West Ham some problems from set-pieces, and this may be something to watch moving forward because the Hammers ranked 11th in set-piece defence last season.

Are they missing Rice? West Ham have averaged 52.25 losses of possession in their own third this season, up from 20.61, which indicates they are having more trouble playing through a press.

Luton's passes per defensive action (PPDA) dropped, which indicates they were more willing to press the Hammers than their previous two opponents, Chelsea and Brighton. We could see their games increase in scoring if they press weaker opposition more.

Market: Over 2.5 backed 2.40 > 2.18 in the 24 hours before kickoff.

Player Notes: Luton defenders accounted for six shots, which included a 0.38 xG chance from Reece Burke. The Hatters created five shots from set-pieces. They face Fulham next game week, who ranked 16th in xG allowed via set-pieces last season. 

Another set-piece assist for James Ward-Prowse, that's now a goal or assist in all three West Ham appearances. Bowen was the furthest player forward for the Hammers, closely followed by Benrahma, with Antonio coming deeper. Benrahma led the match with five shots, and Bowen recorded two shots and a goal. The Englishman has had two or more shots in all four games this season.

Sheffield Utd 2-2 Everton

Expected Goals: 1.19-2.59

Another game, another unlucky game for Everton. The money came for over 2.5 in a big way and was correct. Both teams pressed more which resulted in a higher scoring game. Sheffield United had 27 losses of possession in their own third.

Market: Over 2.5 backed 2.40 > 2.18 in the 24 hours before kickoff - big move.

Player Notes: Danjuma led the way with five shots. His shot counts this season - 5, 3, 5, 4. Beto has had four shots in both games for Everton.

Gustavo Hamer has had one or more shots and a shot on target in all three games. Cameron Archer only two shots, also only had one against Lincoln.

Brentford 2-2 Bournemouth

Expected Goals: 2.91-2.09

Brentford were the better team on expected goals across all xG models. They pressed Bournemouth very well and caused 30 losses of possession in their own third, similar to what they did to Palace at home.

Market: Small move for Under 2.5 backed from 2.24 > 2.11 in the 6 hours before kickoff.

Player Notes: Kevin Schade has had two shots in his last two starts and might be starting to find his feet at the level. Mbuemo has only had two shots, one on target, over the last two games, so he may be eating into his production.

Bournemouth allowed multiple shots to two of Brentford's front three, which means they've allowed two or more shots to every player across the opposition attacking line, apart from one (Mbuemo). Look to bet Newcastle player shots next game. Bournemouth have seen an opposing holding midfielder booked in three out of four matches. 

Semenyo and Billing have had two or more shots in all four games. Ryan Christie had three shots against Brentford and was nearly their highest attacker.

Burnley 2-5 Tottenham

Expected Goals: 1.36-2.28

Tottenham's pressing numbers are fantastic. Their opponents are averaging over 20 losses of possession in their own third. Burnley have played three good build-up teams so far, which is carving through their press.

Market: Quiet on the whole, but a small move for Burnley 4.18 > 3.98 on gameday.

Player Notes: Luca Koleosho may be going under the radar with 2, 2, and 1 shots. 

Son had five shots, three on target, after moving to play the number nine role. Pape Sarr has had a shot on target in all four games. Manor Solomon took two shots in his first start. Spurs have been allowing opposing strikers a good amount of shots.

Chelsea 0-1 Nottingham Forest

Expected Goals: 2.30-0.76

Look away now Chelsea fans. A smash and grab from Nottingham Forest. A similar story as last year for Chelsea so far. They are creating the chances, but nobody is putting the ball in the back of the net. 21 shots but just 2 on target.

47 losses of possession in their own third from Nottingham Forest.

Market: Under 2.5 backed from 2.52 > 2.14 in the 12 hours before kickoff - very big move.

Player Notes: Raheem Sterling was further forward than Jackson. Enzo Fernandez has had four shots in each of his last two games and is playing further forward of Gallagher and Caicedo. Jackson booked in three of four. Chilwell has at least one shot in all four.

Elanga three shots all on target in his 45 minute debut.

Man City 5-1 Fulham

Expected Goals: 2.26-1.45

Fulham +2.25 handicap backers can probably count themselves as a bit unlucky. Man City attack a bit blunt without De Bruyne? They scored five goals from five shots on target. They allowed Fulham a season-high four shots on target but the Cottagers could only muster up one goal.

Market: Small move for Fulham +2 handicap from 2.24 > 2.08

Player Notes:Haaland has had four or more shots in all four games. Alvarez the only other real contributor with a shot on target in all four games. Man City have allowed opposing striker's to have two or more shots in four of their five competitive matches.

 Jiminez two or more shots in his last three. Fulham haven't had over 10 shots as a team yet but three of their matches have been away. Fulham are the most carded team in the league with an average of 4.25 cards per game.

Brighton 3-1 Newcastle

Expected Goals: 1.30-1.23

Another game where shot xG models were just completely wrong. Brighton dominated this game.

Newcastle stuggled against the Brighton press and couldn't string two passes together at times. Newcastle need Botman to return. They had 21 losses of possession in their own third. If you remove the final game of last season against Chelsea they hadn't reached this kind of number since they played Arsenal in early May. 

Market: The market continues to love Newcastle. Draw No Bet 2.12 > 1.92 in the hour before kickoff - Big late move.

Player Notes: Evan Ferguson has four and six shots in his two home starts this season.  He has three or more in six of his seven starts at The Amex. The cat may be out of the bag now though thanks to his hat-trick.

Anthony Gordon has been booked in three of four.

Crystal Palace 3-2 Wolves

Expected Goals: 2.11-1.18

Who was expecting a 3-2 thriller in this game? Wolves could be a good team for goals. This isn't the Bournemouth Gary O'Neil we are seeing. Wolves are pressing a lot more and it'll be interesting to see if they continue to do so against Liverpool.

Crystal Palace are a good football team. Over the last 12 games of last season they were 7th in net xG by our own xG numbers. We have them ranked 9th so far this season which includes their game against Arsenal.

Market: Small move for Palace, 2.06 > 1.94 in the 12 hours before kickoff.

Player Notes: Eze has three or more shots in all four games. Edouard has a shot on target in all four and over two shots in every game. Jordan Ayew also has two or more shots in all four.

Pedro Neto has been fantastic, he's had two or more shots in three of four. Wolves are the second-most carded team in the league with an average of 4.00 cards per game.

Liverpool 3-0 Aston Villa

Expected Goals: 2.47-0.66

Domination from Liverpool. The market has been anti-Aston Villa for the entire season so far and it was correct on Sunday.

Liverpool were backed into -1 favourites and fully obliged.

One thing to note is Aston Villa's set up away at the big teams. Look to bet the opposition corner handicap. We picked Liverpool -2.5 which covered with ease (7-3).

Market: Two of the biggest moves came in the same game. Liverpool -1 backed from 2.14 > 1.77. Over 3.5 Goals backed from 2.14 > 1.76 - Huge moves.

Player Notes: Nunez five shots in his first start of the season, zero on target. Mo Salah's shot counts this season 4, 2, 5, 3.

Keep an eye on Matty Cash's shot totals. He's had a shot on target in his last three whilst taking 1, 2, 6 shots. Playing much higher in recent week's. Duran had two shots in 17 minutes for Villa after playing against Hibs in midweek where he had two shots aswell.

Arsenal 3-1 Man United

Expected Goals: 2.27-0.94

Man United are an auto-fade against the big teams away from home. They have eight losses and a draw away against the top eight teams going back to last season.

United sat deep against Arsenal and looked to play on the counter, which almost worked on the day. However, underlying xG numbers had this game anywhere between -0.75 and -1 in favour of The Gunners.

Market:  Big, late moves for Over 3.5 Goals backed from 2.48 > 2.18 and Arsenal -0.75 Handicap 2.10 > 1.92 in the hour before kickoff - Big late move

Player Notes: Saka and Odegaard three or more shots in all four games. Gabriel Jesus being back fit may dent these numbers though. Martinelli two plus shots in his last three after blanking in the first game against Forest and Community Shield.

Rashford two or more shots in all four games. Bruno without an attempt on on goal for the first time in 18 games. Hojlund one shot in his 15 minute cameo. Onana booked in two of four.